The Psychology of the Underdog: When Belief Becomes a Performance Tool
Reviewing Moroccos heroics at the 2022 Qatar World Cup, and the reason why being the underdog can propel you to success.
Dan Lockwood
6/11/20265 min read
There is something deeply compelling about an underdog story. Whether it is a nation of a few million people eliminating a footballing superpower, or a club side no one expected to see in a final lifting the trophy in front of a stunned crowd, just as second division Torreense did to Portuguese giants Sporting CP just a few weeks back. We are drawn to these moments in a way that goes beyond sport. They feel like proof that something more than talent and resources decides outcomes. And in many cases, they are.
With the 2026 FIFA World Cup kicking off this evening, spread across the United States, Canada and Mexico, the expanded 48-team format means more nations than ever before are stepping onto the world stage as underdogs. More mismatch fixtures. More opportunities for upsets. And with that, more fascinating psychology to unpack.
Why We Love the Underdog
Before we explore what happens inside the minds of underdog competitors, it is worth asking why we are so captivated by them in the first place. Research published in the journal Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin found that when people observe competitions, they are often drawn to figures that are seen as disadvantaged or unlikely to prevail. In study after study, neutral observers consistently side with the team or individual carrying the lower expectations. We root for them, we remember their victories disproportionately, and their stories stay with us long after the final whistle.
Part of this is about effort. Attributions of greater effort to underdogs mediate their support, enhancing likability despite perceived ability. We assume the underdog is working harder, sacrificing more, and that their success, if it comes, is deserved in a way that a favourite's victory simply is not. There is a justice to it that we find satisfying.
But here is the interesting thing: this public sympathy and low expectation doesn’t just make for good viewing. For the athletes themselves, it can become a genuine performance tool.
The Underdog Effect: When Low Expectations Fuel Performance
The psychology of being an underdog is genuinely complicated. Common sense might suggest that being written off would harm confidence and therefore performance. But the research tells a more nuanced story.
Research published in the Academy of Management Journal found that underdog expectations, defined as an individual's perception that others view them as unlikely to succeed, have the potential to boost performance through the desire to prove others wrong, particularly when observers are not seen as credible or authoritative. When an athlete or team believes the doubters do not truly understand what they are capable of, that disbelief becomes fuel rather than a drag. The psychological response is something close to defiance, and defiance, it turns out, is a powerful motivator.
This was on display at the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, when Morocco became the first African and Arab nation to reach the semi-finals of the tournament. They had suffered a shock defeat to Benin at the Africa Cup of Nations just three years earlier, yet by the time they reached Qatar they were eliminatingBelgium, Spain, and Portugal on their path to the last four. Nobody had seriously expected it. But that, in many respects, is precisely the point. The Moroccan coach reinforced a sense of shared national identity and collective purpose, with players openly embracing the values and beliefs that connected them as a group, regardless of the countries in which many of them had been born and raised. This was not simply a talented squad. It was a group of people who had built something together around a shared identity, and that unity became one of their most formidable assets.
The Role of Belief: Self-Efficacy and Why It Matters
Underpinning all of this is a concept that sport psychologists return to repeatedly: self-efficacy. Developed by the psychologist Albert Bandura, self-efficacy refers to a person's belief in their own ability to succeed in a specific situation. It is the confidence in one's ability to influence events and exercise control over one's environment, and it provides the foundation for motivation, wellbeing, and personal accomplishment.
What makes this particularly important in the context of underdog performance is that self-efficacy does not require the outside world to share your belief. An athlete can hold a deep, stable confidence in what they are capable of even when the bookmakers, the pundits, and the watching world expect them to fall short. In fact, individuals who are persuaded by coaches, teammates, and peers to believe in their own capabilities are more likely to exhibit greater effort and persistence, which in turn enhances their performance. The belief does not have to start from within. It can be built, cultivated, and reinforced through the environment an athlete is placed in.
This is why the internal culture of a team matters so much. Morocco's players spoke consistently about their belief in one another, their sense of shared purpose, and the identity they carried onto the pitch together. Perceived collective efficacy, the shared belief in a group's capacity to achieve common goals, fosters motivational commitment, resilience in adversity, and performance accomplishments. When a team genuinely believes it can win, regardless of what the outside world thinks, that belief has a measurable effect on what they actually do in competition.
The Flip Side: When Low Expectations Become Self-Fulfilling
It would be misleading to suggest that being an underdog is always an advantage. The research is careful to point out that context matters significantly. When observers are perceived as credible and knowledgeable, underdog expectations can actually undermine performance rather than enhance it, consistent with what researchers call the Golem effect, where low expectations from a trusted source lead to reduced performance.
In practical terms, this means that if a player deeply respects their coaching staff and that coaching staff communicates a lack of belief in the team's chances, the psychological impact can be damaging. The key variable is not the expectation itself, but the athlete's relationship with the person or institution delivering it. A scout who knows nothing about your sport writing you off is easy to dismiss. A coach you trust and admire communicating doubt is a very different psychological experience.
This is why the way coaches and support staff frame challenges matters enormously. Communicating belief, building a strong sense of team identity, and helping athletes develop their own internal reference points for confidence are not soft extras. They are central to performance, particularly when the odds appear to be stacked against you.
What This Means Beyond the World Cup
You do not have to be a World Cup footballer for any of this to land. Think about the last time you entered a competition, a race, a match, a job interview, a presentation, as someone who was not expected to do well. Did that expectation pull you down, or did it quietly free you from the pressure of being the one everyone was watching?
For many people, being the underdog removes a layer of performance anxiety that the favourite has tocarry. There is a certain freedom in having nothing to lose, and sport psychology has consistently shown that the absence of excessive pressure can allow athletes to express their genuine capabilities more naturally.
The athletes and teams we will be watching at this World Cup who are given little chance by the media are not simply making up the numbers. Some of them will have built something inside their squads that is genuinely powerful: a shared belief, a strong sense of identity, a hunger to prove the doubters wrong. And if the history of the tournament tells us anything, it is that when those ingredients come together, extraordinary things can happen.
As the great Moroccan story of 2022 showed the world, belief does not require permission. It just requires the courage to hold onto it.
